Antifragile - by Nassim Nicholas Taleb

Excellent review of Nassim Nicholas Taleb' Antifragile at Getting Stronger

Key points, from a hormesis perspective - quoted from Getting Stronger :-

The Barbell Strategy.  One of the hallmarks of fragility is that the downside is much worse than the upside. Taleb realized this as an options trader and developed a bimodal investment strategy, using the image of a barbell as a metaphor for pursuing the extremes instead of the average.  Rather than “diversify” into areas of average risk, he advises putting the majority of assets into ultra-safe investments like cash, and a small amount–say 10%–into some investments that are riskier but have a disproportionately huge upside.  This is an “asymmetric” or lopsided strategy which protects on the downside and has the possibility of great gain on the upside.

How does the barbell strategy apply to health?  A great example is combining occasional, high intensity weight lifting or interval training, alternating with long stretches of rest, recovery and  ”doing nothing”.

Asymmetric Optionality.   Accepting the idea that we should use the majority of our assets to protect solidly against the downside, how do we decide to invest our money, time, or energies to maximize the upside?  Taleb’s answer is to create asymmetric options.  An option is not just any “investment” — it is something you can chose to act on, but have no obligation to act upon.  Taleb’s idea is to seek out or create options that have a strong upside, but very low cost or downside. He cites the example of the Greek philosopher Thales, who bought the rights to use idle olive oil presses for a very low fee.  When an unusually good olive harvest came, he reaped a fortune by renting out the oil presses to growers who had to come to him.  Look for asymmetric options in areas besides just investing.  For example, if you can secure a rent-controlled apartment, you are protected against rent increases, but if rental rates go down elsewhere, you are free to move.  In your contracts, insist on the option to cancel at will without cost. (Don’t sign up for long term phone contracts!).

See Getting Stronger